Water FractalTier 2
at DTR Massachusetts Regionals
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.4%
avg ELO -6.2 per match
expected value
49.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1153
· median 1153
· range 1153–1153
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1168
Q3 1324
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
